By NextBestFitDrug shortages of cheap, essential generics
Shortages hit a record 323 in early 2024, about half sterile injectables such as chemotherapy and crash-cart drugs. Generic prices are so low that few factories make them, so one plant problem causes national shortages.
Evidence
- 323 active shortages in Q1 2024, the most since 2001.
Who's affected
- People with ongoing or specialist care needs: Essential generic shortages interrupt access to chemotherapy and emergency drugs.
- People needing emergency or trauma care: Essential generic shortages interrupt access to chemotherapy and emergency drugs.
- Hospitals, clinics, and care organizations: Dependence on few factories leaves hospitals exposed to essential drug shortages.
None identified.
Under your mix of paths
- Race-to-the-bottom generic pricing
- Concentrated offshore manufacturing
- No reward for reliable supply
Related costs
Open questions
- Should a single buyer pay more for reliable supply, fund domestic manufacturing, or make some generics publicly?
Solution paths (2)
Open a path for what it fixes, what it creates or worsens, who gains and who loses, precedents, and how it connects to other paths. See all paths as a decision tree.
Pay a premium to manufacturers with redundant, quality-rated supply chains; long-term contracts with minimum volumes.
- +Drug shortages of cheap, essential generics
- −Raises spending or loosens control over it
- −Adds paperwork, coordination, or complexity
Keep buffer stocks of essential drugs and fund domestic manufacturing.
- +Drug shortages of cheap, essential generics
- −Raises spending or loosens control over it
- −Takes years, or money up front, before it pays off
Also addressed by paths for other problems
Public or nonprofit production of drugs affected by shortages improves supply resilience.
Minimum prices or longer-term contracts for essential generics keep supply profitable and help prevent shortages.