By NextBestFitHow much waits grow if demand outpaces capacity (queueing model)
Physician visit demand rises by 12% under the plan. In a simple queue (M/M/1), the expected wait scales with utilization ÷ (1 − utilization), so waits explode as practices approach full capacity. This is illustrative, not a forecast: real practices triage, add hours, and use telehealth. A value of 999 means the queue grows without limit.
Result
$0.0B
Per resident, per year
$0
÷ 341.1M people
Per household
$0
÷ 132.2M households
How it's calculated
| # | Step | Arithmetic | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Demand multiplier (physician visits) | 1.12× | |
| 2 | Practices 75% busy, capacity +0% → 84% busy | [0.84 ÷ (1 − 0.84)] ÷ [0.75 ÷ (1 − 0.75)] | 1.75× |
| 3 | Practices 75% busy, capacity +3% → 81.55% busy | [0.82 ÷ (1 − 0.82)] ÷ [0.75 ÷ (1 − 0.75)] | 1.47× |
| 4 | Practices 75% busy, capacity +6% → 79.25% busy | [0.79 ÷ (1 − 0.79)] ÷ [0.75 ÷ (1 − 0.75)] | 1.27× |
| 5 | Practices 75% busy, capacity +10% → 76.36% busy | [0.76 ÷ (1 − 0.76)] ÷ [0.75 ÷ (1 − 0.75)] | 1.08× |
| 6 | Practices 85% busy, capacity +0% → 95.2% busy | [0.95 ÷ (1 − 0.95)] ÷ [0.85 ÷ (1 − 0.85)] | 3.50× |
| 7 | Practices 85% busy, capacity +3% → 92.43% busy | [0.92 ÷ (1 − 0.92)] ÷ [0.85 ÷ (1 − 0.85)] | 2.15× |
| 8 | Practices 85% busy, capacity +6% → 89.81% busy | [0.90 ÷ (1 − 0.90)] ÷ [0.85 ÷ (1 − 0.85)] | 1.56× |
| 9 | Practices 85% busy, capacity +10% → 86.55% busy | [0.87 ÷ (1 − 0.87)] ÷ [0.85 ÷ (1 − 0.85)] | 1.14× |
| 10 | Practices 90% busy, capacity +0% → over 100% busy (queue grows without limit) | 999.00× | |
| 11 | Practices 90% busy, capacity +3% → 97.86% busy | [0.98 ÷ (1 − 0.98)] ÷ [0.90 ÷ (1 − 0.90)] | 5.09× |
| 12 | Practices 90% busy, capacity +6% → 95.09% busy | [0.95 ÷ (1 − 0.95)] ÷ [0.90 ÷ (1 − 0.90)] | 2.15× |
| 13 | Practices 90% busy, capacity +10% → 91.64% busy | [0.92 ÷ (1 − 0.92)] ÷ [0.90 ÷ (1 − 0.90)] | 1.22× |
Trade-off: Covering everyone with no cost sharing is only compatible with short waits if capacity grows with demand. Every percentage point of capacity added before demand peaks cuts waits sharply; every point missed lengthens them sharply.