Universal HealthcareBy NextBestFit
Phase 1: Enactment & build · Step 1.2

Create the UHP Trust Fund

Months 0–12 · Treasury (managing trustee), UHADiscuss this step
fiscallikelihood: mediumimpact: medium

Recession cuts revenue

Payroll, income, and top-end capital-gains revenue all fall in a downturn while health spending doesn't.

Early warning signs
  • Unemployment above 6%
  • Reserve below 1 month
Mitigation
  • 2-month reserve
  • Counter-cyclical general-revenue transfers

Implementation risks

RiskMitigation
Recessions cut payroll and income revenue while costs keep rising.Counter-cyclical general-revenue transfers when unemployment exceeds 6%, and the contingency reserve.