Ten-year federal window (2027–2036)

The one-year figures grown at projected health spending growth and summed over a ten-year budget window, for comparison with CBO, Urban Institute, and Mercatus estimates.

Result

$32.06T

Per resident, per year

$93,978

÷ 341.1M people

Per household

$242,481

÷ 132.2M households

How it's calculated

#	Step	Arithmetic	Value
1	Annual NHE growth assumed nheGrowth Sources: CMS Office of the Actuary (2025)		5.6%
2	2027 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^3	1.18×
3	2028 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^4	1.24×
4	2029 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^5	1.31×
5	2030 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^6	1.39×
6	2031 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^7	1.46×
7	2032 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^8	1.55×
8	2033 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^9	1.63×
9	2034 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^10	1.72×
10	2035 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^11	1.82×
11	2036 growth factor vs 2024	(1 + 5.6%)^12	1.92×
12	Sum of growth factors		15.23×
13	Federal outlay increase over ten years	$2,104.4B × 15.23	$32.06T
14	New dedicated federal revenue over ten years		$30.65T
15	Net general-fund increase over ten years		$1.41T
16	National health spending change over ten years		−$1.29T
17	Premiums eliminated over ten years		$25.09T
18	Out-of-pocket spending eliminated over ten years		$5.47T
19	Compare: Mercatus (2018), federal increase 2022–2031 Sources: Blahous, Mercatus Center (2018)		$32.60T
20	Compare: Urban Institute (2019), federal increase 2020–2029 Sources: Urban Institute (2019)		$34.00T

Inputs used

Input	Kind	Value
Average annual NHE growth, 2024–2033 (CMS projection) CMS projects ~$8.6T by 2033.	data, high confidence	5.6%

Trade-off: Federal spending rises by tens of trillions of dollars over a decade while private spending falls by about as much; the totals are a shift in who pays, not mostly new spending.

Sources: Blahous, Mercatus Center (2018); Urban Institute (2019); Congressional Budget Office (2020)