By NextBestFitEnrollment, health cards & outreach
Everyone gets a card and notices; hard-to-reach groups get in-person help.
Result
$4.0B
Per resident, per year
$12
÷ 341.1M people
Per household
$30
÷ 132.2M households
How it's calculated
| # | Step | Arithmetic | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Health cards for every resident | 341.1M people × $3 | $1.0B |
| 2 | Mailed notices | 132.2M households × 3 notices × $1.5 | $0.6B |
| 3 | Multilingual outreach campaign | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| 4 | In-person enrollment assisters | 5,000 × $70,000 × 3.4 years | $1.2B |
| 5 | Total one-time cost | $4.0B |
By year
| Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.5B | $1.5B | $0.8B | $0.6B | $0.6B | $0.0B | $0.0B |
Inputs used
| Input | Kind | Value |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. population, 2024 (millions, CMS-implied: $5,278.6B ÷ $15,474) | data, high confidence | 341 |
| Cost per health card (production + mailing) | estimate, medium confidence | $3 |
| U.S. households, 2024 (millions) Census CPS ASEC household count. | data, high confidence | 132 |
| Notices mailed per household across waves | policy, high confidence | 3 |
| Cost per mailed notice | estimate, medium confidence | $2 |
| Multilingual outreach campaign | estimate, medium confidence | $1.2B |
| In-person enrollment assisters | policy, high confidence | 5,000 |
| Loaded annual cost per assister | estimate, medium confidence | $70,000 |
| Years assisters are funded | policy, high confidence | 3 |
Trade-off: Mostly Year 1 (largest wave), then one notice cycle per later wave.