Universal HealthcareBy NextBestFit
Phase 3: Waves 2 & 3: working-age adults · Step 3.3

Wind down the private health insurers

Years 1–5 · State insurance commissioners; NAIC; UHADiscuss this step
← All costs for this step

Insurer shareholder value at risk

A one-time wealth loss, not an annual cash flow: the market value of the insurance profits that disappear.

Result
−$567.0B
Per resident, per year
−$1,662
÷ 341.1M people
Per household
−$4,289
÷ 132.2M households

How it's calculated

#StepArithmeticValue
1
Annual insurer profit lost
insurerProfit
$42.0B
2
Low earnings multiple
insurerEquityMultipleLow
10.00×
3
High earnings multiple
insurerEquityMultipleHigh
17.00×
4
Value lost, low
$42.0B × 10−$420.0B
5
Value lost, high
$42.0B × 17−$714.0B

Inputs used

InputKindValue
Private health insurer profit (underwriting + fees)estimate, low confidence$42.0B
Earnings multiple for capitalizing lost profit (low)estimate, low confidence10.00×
Earnings multiple for capitalizing lost profit (high)estimate, low confidence17.00×
Trade-off: No compensation is paid. Losing a market to regulation is not a taking, but shareholders (including pension funds) bear the loss.
Sources: NAIC (2024)