By NextBestFitTop-end surtaxes & financial transactions tax (new)
A 7% surtax on AGI above $1 million (about $1.9T of income in 2024: roughly $135B), taxing capital gains and dividends as ordinary income above $1 million ($90B), and a 0.1% financial transactions tax ($75B after behavioral response). The remaining ~$30B comes from capping the new employer tax deduction for health spending by the largest employers (no longer needed). Every one of these has wide uncertainty, mostly from behavior and avoidance.
Result
$330.1B
$0.0B → $330.1B
Per resident, per year
$968
÷ 341.1M people
Per household
$2,497
÷ 132.2M households
Range
$250.0B–$420.0B
Lean and costly scenarios.
How it's calculated
| # | Step | Arithmetic | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Income above $1M per return, summed (estimate) | $1.93T | |
| 2 | Surtax at 7% | $1,930.0B × 7% | $135.1B |
| 3 | Capital gains & dividends taxed as ordinary income above $1M | $90.0B | |
| 4 | Financial transactions tax (0.1%), after behavioral response Sources: Congressional Budget Office (2024) | $75.0B | |
| 5 | Caps on remaining health-benefit deductions | $30.0B | |
| 6 | Total top-end revenue | $330.1B |
Inputs used
| Input | Kind | Value |
|---|---|---|
| AGI above $1M per return, summed | estimate, low confidence | $1.93T |
| Surtax rate above $1M AGI | policy, high confidence | 7% |
| Capital gains & dividends as ordinary income above $1M | estimate, low confidence | $90.0B |
| Financial transactions tax rate | policy, high confidence | 0.1% |
| Financial transactions tax revenue after behavioral response | estimate, low confidence | $75.0B |
| Other: caps on remaining health-benefit deductions | estimate, low confidence | $30.0B |
Trade-off: A new, visible tax replaces premiums and out-of-pocket costs. It is proportional to income or payroll instead of flat per person.
Sources: CMS Office of the Actuary (2025)