By NextBestFitIncome-based health premium (new)
4.0% of AGI above a household exemption of $32,000 for a family of four.
Result
$512.2B
$0.0B → $512.2B
Per resident, per year
$1,502
÷ 341.1M people
Per household
$3,875
÷ 132.2M households
Range
$480.0B–$544.0B
Lean and costly scenarios.
How it's calculated
| # | Step | Arithmetic | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adjusted gross income, tax year 2022 (IRS) Sources: IRS Statistics of Income (2024) | $15.10T | |
| 2 | Grown to 2024 (+6%) | $15,100.0B × (1 + 6%) | $16.01T |
| 3 | Minus income under household exemptions ($16k single … $32k family of four) | −$3.20T | |
| 4 | AGI subject to the premium | $16,006.0B − $3,200.0B | $12.81T |
| 5 | Premium at 4% | $12,806.0B × 4% | $512.2B |
Inputs used
| Input | Kind | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted gross income, tax year 2022 | data, high confidence | $15.10T |
| AGI growth 2022 → 2024 Roughly nominal wage + capital income growth over two years. | estimate, medium confidence | 6% |
| AGI removed by household exemptions Most low-income returns use their full exemption; ~160M returns × an average ~$20k exemption, less unused exemption. | estimate, medium confidence | $3.20T |
| Household exemption: 1 person | policy, high confidence | $16,000 |
| Household exemption: 4 people | policy, high confidence | $32,000 |
| Household income-based premium rate | policy, high confidence | 4% |
Trade-off: A new, visible tax replaces premiums and out-of-pocket costs. It is proportional to income or payroll instead of flat per person.
Sources: CMS Office of the Actuary (2025)