By NextBestFitOther non-durable medical products
Over-the-counter products stay out of pocket, as they do in nearly every universal system. The small Medicare amount (supplies tied to covered conditions) continues under UHP.
Result
$128.7B
$128.7B → $128.7B
Per resident, per year
$377
÷ 341.1M people
Per household
$974
÷ 132.2M households
Range
$128.7B–$128.7B
Lean and costly scenarios.
How it's calculated
| # | Step | Arithmetic | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 spending on this service (CMS NHE Table 4) Sources: CMS Office of the Actuary (2025) | $128.7B | |
| 2 | Medicare paid $5.5B at 1.00× the reference price → volume Sources: CMS Office of the Actuary (2025) | $5.5B ÷ 1.00× | $5.5B |
| 3 | Out-of-pocket spending in 2024 Sources: CMS Office of the Actuary (2025) | $123.2B | |
| 4 | Stays out of pocket (items UHP excludes: 100%) | $123.2B × 100% | $123.2B |
| 5 | Covered out-of-pocket converted to reference-price volume | ($123.2B − $123.2B) ÷ 1.00× | $0.0B |
| 6 | Care UHP takes over, valued at 2024 prices | $5.5B | |
| 7 | Same care valued at the reference price (Retail price) | $5.5B | |
| 8 | Re-priced at UHP rate 1.00× | $5.5B × 1.00× | $5.5B |
| 9 | Price effect (same care, new prices) | $5.5B − $5.5B | $0.0B |
| 10 | Utilization multiplier 1.00× | $5.5B × 1.00× | $5.5B |
| 11 | Utilization effect (more care) | $5.5B − $5.5B | $0.0B |
| 12 | UHP spending on this service | $5.5B | |
| 13 | Plus spending that stays out of pocket | $123.2B | |
| 14 | Total national spending on this service under the plan | $5.5B + $123.2B + $0.0B | $128.7B |
| 15 | Change from 2024 | $128.7B − $128.7B | $0.0B |
Trade-off: Prices rise $0.0B (to raise access or wages) and patients receive $0.0B more care.
Sources: CMS Office of the Actuary (2025)