By NextBestFitPhase-in financing gap & temporary borrowing
During the four-year phase-in, spending moves to UHP faster than the new taxes ramp up.
Result
$850.8B
Per resident, per year
$2,494
÷ 341.1M people
Per household
$6,436
÷ 132.2M households
How it's calculated
| # | Step | Arithmetic | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Year 1: UHP carries 63% of steady-state spending — new financing needed | $1.21T | |
| 2 | Year 1: new taxes raised (Employer health payroll tax 40%; Household income-based premium 25%; Income tax on former premium dollars 20%; Top-end surtaxes & FTT 100%; Medicare payroll tax growth 20%) | $829.4B | |
| 3 | Year 1: general revenue (as in steady state) | $61.2B | |
| 4 | Year 1: phase-in shortfall | $1,211.1B − $829.4B − $61.2B | $320.5B |
| 5 | Year 1: one-time costs | $57.3B | |
| 6 | Year 1: temporary borrowing | $377.8B | |
| 7 | Year 2: UHP carries 76% of steady-state spending — new financing needed | $1.46T | |
| 8 | Year 2: new taxes raised (Employer health payroll tax 60%; Household income-based premium 50%; Income tax on former premium dollars 40%; Top-end surtaxes & FTT 100%; Medicare payroll tax growth 40%) | $1.15T | |
| 9 | Year 2: general revenue (as in steady state) | $73.9B | |
| 10 | Year 2: phase-in shortfall | $1,461.0B − $1,154.0B − $73.9B | $233.1B |
| 11 | Year 2: one-time costs | $58.8B | |
| 12 | Year 2: temporary borrowing | $292.0B | |
| 13 | Year 3: UHP carries 86% of steady-state spending — new financing needed | $1.65T | |
| 14 | Year 3: new taxes raised (Employer health payroll tax 80%; Household income-based premium 75%; Income tax on former premium dollars 65%; Top-end surtaxes & FTT 100%; Medicare payroll tax growth 65%) | $1.48T | |
| 15 | Year 3: general revenue (as in steady state) | $83.6B | |
| 16 | Year 3: phase-in shortfall | $1,653.2B − $1,484.1B − $83.6B | $85.5B |
| 17 | Year 3: one-time costs | $51.0B | |
| 18 | Year 3: temporary borrowing | $136.6B | |
| 19 | Year 4: UHP carries 100% of steady-state spending — new financing needed | $1.92T | |
| 20 | Year 4: new taxes raised (Employer health payroll tax 100%; Household income-based premium 100%; Income tax on former premium dollars 100%; Top-end surtaxes & FTT 100%; Medicare payroll tax growth 100%) | $1.83T | |
| 21 | Year 4: general revenue (as in steady state) | $97.2B | |
| 22 | Year 4: phase-in shortfall | $1,922.4B − $1,825.2B − $97.2B | $0.0B |
| 23 | Year 4: one-time costs | $44.5B | |
| 24 | Year 4: temporary borrowing | $44.5B |
By year
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $377.8B | $292.0B | $136.6B | $44.5B |
Trade-off: Faster tax phase-in would cut borrowing but hit taxpayers before many of them are covered.