By NextBestFitWorker transition program: full calculation
What it costs to support every displaced worker through wage replacement, wage insurance, training, and bridge pensions.
Result
$104.4B
Per resident, per year
$306
÷ 341.1M people
Per household
$789
÷ 132.2M households
How it's calculated
| # | Step | Arithmetic | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Displaced workers (sum of job groups) | 975,261 | |
| 2 | Average wage of displaced workers (capped) | $73,136 | |
| 3 | Wage replacement, year 1: 90% of wage × 75% still unemployed | 975,261 × $73,136 × 90% × 75% | $48.1B |
| 4 | Wage replacement, year 2: 70% of wage × 40% still unemployed | 975,261 × $73,136 × 70% × 40% | $20.0B |
| 5 | Wage replacement, year 3: 50% of wage × 25% still unemployed | 975,261 × $73,136 × 50% × 25% | $8.9B |
| 6 | Wage insurance for reemployed workers | 975,261 × 75% × $73,136 × 15% pay cut × 50% × 2 years | $8.0B |
| 7 | Training vouchers | 975,261 × 60% × $12,000 | $7.0B |
| 8 | Bridge pensions for workers 58+ | 975,261 × 12% × $35,000 × 3 years | $12.3B |
| 9 | Total program cost | $104.4B |
Inputs used
| Input | Kind | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Wage replacement cap | policy, high confidence | $120,000 |
| Wage replacement, year 1 of unemployment | policy, high confidence | 90% |
| Average share still unemployed, year 1 | estimate, low confidence | 75% |
| Wage replacement, year 2 | policy, high confidence | 70% |
| Average share still unemployed, year 2 | estimate, low confidence | 40% |
| Wage replacement, year 3 | policy, high confidence | 50% |
| Average share still unemployed, year 3 | estimate, low confidence | 25% |
| Share reemployed (eventually) | estimate, low confidence | 75% |
| Average pay cut when reemployed | estimate, low confidence | 15% |
| Wage insurance: share of pay gap covered | policy, high confidence | 50% |
| Wage insurance duration | policy, high confidence | 2 |
| Training voucher | policy, high confidence | $12,000 |
| Training voucher uptake | estimate, medium confidence | 60% |
| Share of displaced workers aged 58+ | estimate, medium confidence | 12% |
| Bridge pension per year | policy, high confidence | $35,000 |
| Bridge pension years | policy, high confidence | 3 |
Trade-off: More generous support costs more but reduces hardship and political opposition; displaced-worker research finds lasting earnings losses even with support.